检验全球数值预报模式的相似度等指标   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

朱娟  张立凤  张铭 《气象科学》2018,38(2):221-228

本文依照泛函形式并考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,定义了用于全球数值模式效果检验的指标:距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度,给出了相应的计算方法,并以全球WRF模式为例,检验了该模式的中期预报效果。所得结论如下:指标距离、距平相似度和倾向相似度物理意义明确,易于理论分析,考虑了球面经纬网格的特点,检验准确度高,具有普适性,能方便应用于球面经纬网格输出的数值模式检验。指标距离、距平相似度的检验结果分别与传统检验指标均方根误差、距平相关系数相一致,该指标还可直接用于向量场(如风场)的整体检验。本文的全球WRF模式所做的检验表明,对本文个例,该模式的全球500 hPa中期天气形势预报在第7 d及之内皆可用,5 d及之内预报效果更佳。  相似文献   

2016年6月海南一次龙卷过程分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵蕾  吴坤悌  陈明 《气象与环境科学》2018,41(2):71-77

利用19612015年陕西省70个气象观测站的逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、趋势分析及Mann Kendall等方法,分析了陕西省不同等级降水量、降水日数及降水强度的气候变化特征。结果表明：无论是降水量、降水日数,还是降水强度,均呈现出南多北少的分布特征,且随着降水级别的逐级增加,地区分布差异逐渐增大;整体上降水量和降水日数呈现出减少趋势,其中降水日数的下降趋势均非常显著,全省年均降水日数的气候倾向率达到了-3.83天·10a-1,通过了0.01的显著性检验,降水强度的增加趋势通过了0.05的显著性检验,每10 a全省年均降水强度增加0.15 mm·d-1;陕西降水量及降水日数的减少主要体现在春秋两季小雨及中雨的减少上,小雨降水强度在夏、秋两季的气候倾向率分别为0.05和0.04 mm·d-1·10a-1,其上升趋势分别通过了0.01和0.1的显著性检验,这是年均降水强度上升的主要原因;陕西年均降水量及降水日数自1984年出现了突变性下降,而降水强度的突变则出现在2004年,之后一直呈现持续的上升趋势。  相似文献   

A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System:Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results     

Yujie PAN  Ming XUE  Kefeng ZHU  Mingjun WANG 《大气科学进展》2018,35(5):518-530

A dual-resolution(DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)-3D ensemble variational(3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution(HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution(LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI) 3D variational(3DVar)analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar.Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds.  相似文献   

THE EFFECTS OF STATION NETWORK DENSITY ON STATISTICAL ANALYSES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE PRECIPITATION     

鲁小琴  余晖  应明  漆梁波 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2018,24(4):421-432

In this paper, 1416 conventional ground-based meteorological observation stations on the mainland of China were subdivided into groups of differing spatial density. Data from each subgroup were then used to analyze variations in the tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation statistics derived from each subgroup across the mainland of China (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao), as well as in two regions (east China and south China) and three provinces (Guangdong, Hainan, and Jiangxi) between 1981 and 2010. The results showed that for the mainland of China, total precipitation, mean annual precipitation, mean daily precipitation, and its spatial distribution were the same regardless of the spatial density of the stations. However, some minor differences were evident with respect to precipitation extremes and their spatial distribution. Overall, there were no significant variations in the TC precipitation statistics calculated from different station density schemes for the mainland of China. The regional and provincial results showed no significant differences in mean daily precipitation, but this was not the case for the maximum daily precipitation and torrential rain frequency. The maximum daily precipitation calculated from the lower-density station data was slightly less than that based on the higher-density station schemes, and this effect should be taken into consideration when interpreting regional climate statistics. The impact of station density on TC precipitation characteristics was more obvious for Hainan than for Guangdong or Jiangxi provinces. In addition, the effects were greater for south China (including Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces) than east China (including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, and Jiangxi provinces). Furthermore, the analysis proved that the statistical climatic characteristics began to change significantly when the station spacing was between 40 and 50 km, which are close to the mean spacing for all stations across the mainland of China. Moreover, TC areal precipitation parameters, including mean total areal precipitation and mean daily areal precipitation, also began to change significantly when the spacing was between 40 and 50 km, and were completely different when it was between 100 and 200 km.  相似文献   

定量测量降水量的回波结构自适应算法研究          下载免费PDF全文

魏鸣  宋羽轩  张蕾 《大气科学学报》2018,41(5):676-683

为提高临近预报中对流性降水估测的准确性,分析了统计法估算降水的局限性。依据降水物理机制和降水回波结构,研究雷达反射率因子定量测量降水量(QPE-Qualitative Precipitation Estimate)的自适应算法,旨在减少由于雨滴谱变化导致的Z-I关系不稳定所引起的降水量测量误差。同时考虑组合反射率因子RC和垂直液态水含量VIL两个参量对降水的影响,建立适于城市区域的动态自适应的Z-I关系,改进对强降水严重低估的问题。  相似文献   

高分辨率青藏高原历史月降水数据重建     

徐明  石玉立  王彬 《地理科学进展》2018,37(7):923-932

青藏高原对全球气候研究具有重要意义,而降水数据对水文、气象和生态等领域的研究也至关重要,且随着研究内容和尺度的变化,对高时空分辨率的历史降水数据的需求越发迫切。本文基于TRMM 3B43降水数据,采用随机森林算法,引入归一化植被指数(AVHRR NDVI)、高程(SRTM DEM)、坡度、坡向、经度、纬度6个地理因子,建立历史降水重建模型,获得1982-1997年分辨率为0.0833°的青藏高原年降水数据,然后根据比例系数法计算出月降水数据。为提高精度,利用站点数据对月降水数据进行校正。结果表明,该方法能简单有效地获得高时空分辨率的历史降水数据,决定系数R²大部分在0.4~0.9之间,平均值为0.6767,其中夏季效果最好,冬季效果最差;均方根误差RMSE和平均绝对误差MAE均在50 mm以下,RMSE均值为22.66 mm,MAE均值为15.97 mm;偏差Bias较小,基本在0.0~0.1之间。  相似文献   

水平衡下黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力测算   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

雷鸣  孔祥斌  王佳宁 《地理学报》2018,73(3):535-549

为缓解黄淮海平原区地下水水位的持续下降,国家提出耕地资源休养生息的战略,而实施耕地资源休养生息的关键,是确保水平衡下的耕地资源可持续生产能力。本文从可持续理论和水平衡的条件出发,将黄淮海划分成12个自然条件、社会经济条件相对均一的农业生态区,采用不同农业生态区代表实验站限水高产的产量和管理经验,以水定产并逐步修正,得到了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力,并与现实产量对比得到产量差。结果表明：① 水平衡条件下黄淮海平原区耕地的可持续粮食生产能力为1.16亿t/年;② 可持续总产产量差为-67.85万t/年,由于限水灌溉造成的粮食产能损失为小麦331.84万t/年,玉米不存在产能损失;③ 小麦主要压产地区为黑龙港地区、鲁西平原、豫东平原以及京津唐平原,而徐淮低平原、豫东平原以及胶西黄泛平原具有一定的提产潜力。通过测算,进一步认识了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续产能状况,为区域粮食生产的合理布局以及农业限水限产提供可靠依据。  相似文献   

Regulation of Tilapia metallothionein gene expression by heavy metal ions   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Cheung AP  Lam TH  Chan KM 《Marine environmental research》2004,58(2-5):389-394

Tilapia is a common fish species inhabiting inland waters and estuarine regions in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, and useful for bio-monitoring of metal pollution. Metallothionein (MT) gene expression in fish tissues has been useful to sub-lethal risk assessment as biomarker of exposure to metal ions in fishes inhabiting metal contaminated area. To investigate metal inductions of Tilapia MT gene expression in vivo, Tilapias were injected with different concentrations of heavy metals and tissues were then removed for quantitative PCR assay using mimic PCR methods. All of the metal ions tested (Cu(2+), Cd(2+), Hg(2+), Ni(2+), Pb(2+) and Zn(2+)) were able to induce hepatic MT mRNA levels. Renal MT mRNA levels of Cd(2+) and Zn(2+) treated fish was not induced with significant fold induction, however MT mRNA levels in gills were sensitive to the administrations of these metal ions. These data indicated that Tilapia MT mRNA levels in gills and liver are sensitive biomarker of exposure to various metal ions.  相似文献   

海洋走航式单边连续观测地震折射波Δt解释方法--1种新的浅层折射单支时距曲线解释方法     

薛荣俊  隋波  薛巍  张政民  田振兴 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》2004,34(2)

在浅层工程折射地震测量中 ,通常采用相遇观测系统采集数据和相应的解释方法进行解释 ;对于单边观测采集方法由于与其相应的解释方法较少而少被采用。本文提出 1种方法简单、精度可靠、可直接利用同一点相邻 2排列 2次观测的初至折射时间并适合于海洋走航式单边连续观测系统的折射初至资料解释方法。其精度基本与同观测段的采用相遇观测的差异时距方法解释的精度十分接近。该方法即适合于人工解释又适合于计算机自动解释。  相似文献   

中、低纬太平洋ARGO测站Rossby内波垂直模态的数值计算     

叶志敏  张铭 《海洋通报》2004,23(6):1-7

针对中、低纬太平洋ARGO测站的4个实际层结个例，计算了无背景流下准地转海洋Rossby内波的垂直模态。结果表明，海水层结垂直方向的不均匀和跃层的存在，使该垂直模态的波型发生了歪曲变形，致使其偏离了余弦波：跃层越强，这种变形也越大：层结最强的层次对应着最大的波动振幅，多极值的层结对应着多个极大振幅：该内波垂直结构函数的零点随模态序数依次递增，且其零点在海水层结较强的层次要比较弱的层次密集。  相似文献